US and Chinese AI blocs: how Washington is pressing countries to choose, and what's known

The US and Chinese AI blocs now have names, members and rules about loyalty. On October 25, 2026, the Associated Press reported that the US State Department told countries they "can't be trusted partners in Pax Silica," its AI supply-chain declaration, "while substantively engaging in initiatives that advance a competing vision for super intelligence." The statement doesn't name a rival; the most prominent one is China's World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO), founded in Shanghai in July 2026. Some countries belong to both. The pressure sits on top of US export controls on AI chips, the subject of our story on Nvidia B300s found reporting from IP addresses in China.

This story is based on State Department and Commerce Department releases, the Federal Register, the White House text of Executive Order 14320, China's government and foreign ministry pages, and reporting by the AP, Reuters and Kazakhtelecom's news service, checked October 25 and 26, 2026.

The short version

• US bloc: Pax Silica, a State Department declaration on AI and supply-chain security. Its page lists 25 signatories; Paraguay was added on October 23, 2026.
• China's bloc: WAICO, an intergovernmental body headquartered in Shanghai, set up by 29 founding countries on July 16, 2026.
• The pressure: the State Department's statement, as quoted by the AP, says membership of a rival initiative is incompatible with being a trusted Pax Silica partner. It doesn't name China.
• Overlap: Kazakhstan signed both, according to the State Department's list and Kazakhstan's own telecom operator. Qatar is on the Pax Silica list and was named by Kazakhtelecom as a WAICO signatory.
• The sales tool: Commerce's American AI Exports Program, which promotes full-stack US AI packages abroad.

What is Pax Silica?

The State Department calls Pax Silica its "flagship initiative on AI and supply chain security." The declaration covers critical minerals, energy, manufacturing, semiconductors, AI infrastructure and logistics. Its themes include "trusted" networks of data centers and fiber cables, protecting sensitive technology, and reducing "coercive dependencies." The text the department publishes doesn't name China.

As of October 25, 2026, the department's page lists 25 signatories: Argentina, Australia, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, the European Union, Finland, Germany, Greece, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands, Norway, Panama, Paraguay, the Philippines, Qatar, South Korea, Singapore, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom. Taiwan endorsed the principles through a separate joint statement. On October 23, Paraguay's foreign minister signed in Washington with Under Secretary of State Jacob Helberg; the release says the two countries will use Paraguay's minerals and hydropower "to build super intelligence infrastructure in the Americas."

The October warning follows an earlier signal. In mid-August 2026, Reuters reported on an undated internal State Department draft letter, addressed to the 35 signatories of a US "AI Opportunity Statement" signed in June, saying Pax Silica membership "cannot be held alongside" duplicative initiatives with conflicting expectations. Reuters couldn't confirm whether or when it would be sent, and the department declined to comment on what it called "purportedly leaked internal documents."

What is China's World AI Cooperation Organization?

China proposed WAICO in July 2025, when Premier Li Qiang announced it alongside a Global AI Governance Action Plan. China's foreign ministry described its goals as sharing AI's benefits, narrowing the "AI divide" for the Global South, and working toward global governance rules, with the UN as the main channel.

On July 16, 2026, during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, 29 countries signed its founding agreement, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi signing for China, according to China's government website. It describes WAICO as "an independent intergovernmental international organization headquartered in Shanghai." The official account names only Kazakhstan, Laos, Pakistan, Russia and Indonesia among the signatories. Kazakhtelecom, Kazakhstan's largest telecom operator, also named Qatar, Egypt and Brazil. A full official list of the 29 wasn't found.

How the US and Chinese AI blocs formed

1. Jul 23, 2025Executive Order 14320 orders an American AI Exports ProgramConfirmed
2. Jul 2025China proposes WAICO and releases its Global AI Governance Action PlanConfirmed
3. Apr 1, 2026Commerce opens the first call for full-stack AI export packagesConfirmed
4. Jun 2026Kazakhstan's AI minister visits Washington to join Pax SilicaReported
5. Jul 16, 202629 countries, including Kazakhstan, found WAICO in ShanghaiConfirmed
6. Oct 23, 2026Paraguay signs the Pax Silica declarationConfirmed
7. Oct 25, 2026AP reports the State Department's 'trusted partners' warningReported

• Confirmed
• Reported

Which countries are caught in between?

The AP's October 25 story, by Chan Ho-Him and Didi Tang, named several:

• Kazakhstan: AI minister Zhaslan Madiyev visited Washington in June to join Pax Silica, then about three weeks later signed in Shanghai to make Kazakhstan a WAICO founding member, the AP reported. Former Kazakh diplomat Dana Masalimova told the AP: "Everyone is hedging."
• Indonesia: a WAICO founding member, per China's official account. Mari Pangestu of Indonesia's National Economic Council told the AP: "We should be able to be part of both."
• Singapore: a Pax Silica signatory that, the AP reported, is considering joining WAICO.
• Saudi Arabia: its AI company Humain unveiled a platform in September built on a Chinese open model while also holding an Nvidia chip deal, the AP reported.

China's embassy in Washington told the AP that "AI should not be owned by major countries." The AP also cited AidData at William & Mary, which counts Chinese official grants and loans for AI-related projects in at least 77 low- and middle-income countries.

What is the American AI Exports Program?

It's Washington's offer to the countries it wants on its side. Executive Order 14320, signed July 23, 2025, told the Commerce Department to set up a program for "full-stack" US AI export packages. A package covers five layers: AI-optimized hardware and infrastructure, data pipelines, models, security, and applications.

Commerce's International Trade Administration opened its first call for proposals on April 1, 2026, and accepted them until June 30, 2026, according to its Federal Register notice of April 10. Each consortium needs a US "anchor member," and hardware is presumed to need at least 51% US content. Approved packages can get priority export-license review, financing referrals and government advocacy, though the notice says designation "does not guarantee" any of them. The notice's stated aim is to "decrease international dependence on AI technologies developed by our adversaries." No announcement of a designated consortium was found as of October 26, 2026.

Why does this matter?

For most countries, AI capability depends on importing chips, models or both. US policy controls chip exports, as stories like Taiwan's plan to criminalize chip smuggling to China show, and it restricts Chinese AI inside government, as the DHS DeepSeek order does. A loyalty test on Pax Silica adds a diplomatic lever to the technical ones. US officials also accuse Chinese labs of "distillation," which China rejects; our explainer on Anthropic's distillation defenses covers what that means.

What's confirmed, reported and uncertain

• Confirmed (official pages): the Pax Silica signatory list and Paraguay's October 23 signing; WAICO's founding date, headquarters and 29 founding countries; EO 14320 and the Exports Program's terms and deadline.
• Reported: the State Department's "trusted partners" statement and the country accounts (AP); the August draft letter (Reuters); Qatar, Egypt and Brazil as WAICO signatories (Kazakhtelecom).
• Uncertain: when and to whom the State Department made its statement; whether the US will act against countries in both groups; the full WAICO membership list; and whether any export package has been designated.